Blog Betty (Thomas Friedman is a Great Man was an online novel): Science grab bag

Tuesday, July 01, 2025

Science grab bag - birds, climate change,

Fresh and just a few hours old, Isaiah's THE WORLD TODAY JUST NUTS "The Debbie Downers of the Dining Set."

I love it. I also love science and I haven't done a science grab bag in a bit. Jenny Allison (THE COOL DOWN) reports:

A new study from Yale University that tracked the movements of 406 species of North American birds revealed a troubling pattern: Even the fastest birds can't outfly the dangers of the warming planet.

The study was published in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution, and it tracked the movements of these species over two decades alongside corresponding temperature changes in their regions.

Even when birds relocated to cooler areas in response to rising temperatures, researchers found, they couldn't escape the heat.

"They can't move fast enough or far enough to keep up with how quickly climate change is occurring," lead author Jeremy Cohen said.

Several species of birds relocated 40 to 50 miles north, often to higher elevations. And while this meant they experienced only roughly half of the temperature increase that they would have if they had stayed put, they still experienced a dramatic increase.

Winter was even worse, with most species only able to avoid approximately 11% of expected warming and nearly all species experiencing temperature increases of 6.6 degrees Fahrenheit across the two decades.

Birds didn't hurt anyone. They're now producing fumes as they drive their SUVs down Pacific Coast Highway. But if you don't care about the birds, note this from the article:

A key reason that this is so concerning to scientists is that if birds can't escape rising temperatures, it's unlikely any species can.

"This raises deep concerns about the ability of all the other, less mobile species and lesser-known species to persist in a warmer world," co-author Walter Jetz said.

The heat? Here's a video discussing how it could cause a climate catastrophe within two years. Jessica Bennett (DAILY GALAXY) notes:

In a groundbreaking study, scientists have shown that climate change, driven by human activity, was detectable as early as the 1880s, well before the widespread advent of fossil fuel-powered vehicles. The study, published in PNAS, details a hypothetical scenario where 19th-century scientists, with modern tools, could have observed early signs of the atmospheric shifts brought about by the Industrial Revolution. The study’s findings mark a pivotal moment in the ongoing effort to understand human impact on climate patterns, revealing that we’ve known about human-driven climate change much longer than previously thought.

In a thought experiment, Earth and atmospheric scientists suggest that with the appropriate instruments, scientists of the late 1800s might have detected the first signals ofclimate change around 1885. This period was marked by early industrialization, yet fossil fuel-powered cars were still a few years away from becoming commonplace. The study shows that by employing modern tools such as satellite microwave radiometers, scientists could have observed patterns of atmospheric change that were human-induced. This period predates many of the systematic studies of the 20th century that later confirmed the anthropogenic causes of climate change.

The research builds upon a method called “fingerprint” analysis, where scientists apply a pattern-based technique to distinguish between human and natural impacts on the climate. “We then apply a pattern-based ‘fingerprint’ method to disentangle human and natural effects on climate,” the authors explain. Using this method, the scientists were able to detect early human impacts on the climate system, such as stratospheric cooling. The cooling in the stratosphere is a key indicator of the increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, particularly carbon dioxide. This phenomenon likely began as early as the late 19th century, long before modern carbon emissions reached their current levels.

The research reveals that the first detectable signal of climate change was not warming but rather stratospheric cooling. Greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, trap heat in the lower layers of the atmosphere, but they also affect the stratosphere in a way that causes cooling in this upper layer. “Pronounced cooling of the mid- to upper stratosphere, mainly driven by anthropogenic increases in carbon dioxide, would have been identifiable with high confidence by approximately 1885, before the advent of gas-powered cars,” the authors write.

This cooling effect is a direct consequence of increased greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide not only traps heat in the lower atmosphere but also alters the dynamics of the stratosphere. This cooling, combined with warming in the troposphere below, would have made climate change detectable even at this early stage. The study concludes that if scientists in the 19th century had access to high-quality measurement tools, they could have observed these early signs of stratospheric cooling within a few decades.

We always think there will be time. People say that every day, "I thought I'd have more time." We don't. We really don't. The world could not afford four years of Chump but idiots and Gaza freaks didn't care and they trashed Kamala Harris. We do not have time. We have one earth and we need to get to work on saving it. I understand Musk has given up on the idea of a colony on Mars. Good. The last thing we need to do is go trash another planet if we can't take care of our own.

"The Snapshot" (THE COMMON ILLS):

Tuesday, July 1, 2025. Chump's actions have consequences if the media would like to examine that they can start with efforts to deport an Afghan who helped the US military in the Afghanistan War, Chump continues to terrorize immigrants and is he using the 2025 equivalent of Blackwater on US streets, the economy goes further down the toilet and all Chump wants to do is give tax breaks for the extremely wealthy while gutting the safety net.

Let's start with Sayed Naser Noor, the Afghan who worked with US troops in Afghanistan and who Donald Chump is now trying to deport. Rebecca Kheel (MILITARY.COM) notes:

"I believed in you. I worked with you. I helped you for years, side by side. I trusted your words and followed your rules. That trust brought me here," Noori said in a written statement read aloud by a supporter during Monday's news conference. "Now, I sit in detention, treated like a criminal for doing exactly what I was told to do. I crossed borders to be safe, I asked for protection the right way, and yet I am punished."

Noori's last hope to avoid deportation is a so-called credible fear interview, which migrants slated for expedited removal are entitled to to determine whether they might be eligible for asylum. Noori requested an interview, and immigration officials have acknowledged his right to one, but an interview hasn't been scheduled yet, McGoldrick said. Theoretically, Noori cannot be deported until after the interview.

Before someone e-mails about our using his full name, the article notes, "Noori's legal team had originally requested reporters withhold his last name for his protection but is now using it publicly after the Department of Homeland Security identified him by his full name in public statements." As we noted Saturday, Homeland Security posted his full name on their Twitter account June 19th.

We need to stop a moment. The immigration attacks Chump is carrying out are outrageous. Each and everyone. But they are often outrageous in their own certain way.

Sayed helped US forces. Around the world -- not just in declared war zones -- this government has foreigners who assist in so many ways. And one of the reasons they do do is because of a level of trust.

By trying to deport Sayed, Chump is revoking that trust and that can have serious consequences around the world. There's no one brave enough in the administration to tell him this is a mistake. Would he listen if they did? Actually, he would. He'd listen just because he'd be in shock that the automatic response was not, "Mr. President, you're a genius!" He is not a genius, he is an imbicile.

And someone needs to be talking -- David Ignatius, isn't their your area of expertise? -- about the blowback that can result in what Chump's doing to Sayed.

Instead, we just watch as our home grown Adolf, surrounded by his little Eichmann's is encouraged to move further and further away from humanity. Nicole Lafond (TPM) notes:

It is difficult to find any recent photos of President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis together.

That’s because the two of them have largely been at odds since DeSantis tried to test his MAGA bonafides and was utterly humiliated by Trump on the national stage during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Trump has made a point of continuing to humiliate DeSantis since he returned to office, while the soon-to-be term-limited governor of Florida tries to make MAGA amends, his political relevance fading fast.

But it appears the two are going to bury the hatchet tomorrow to come together in a shared passion: finding creative new ways to dehumanize immigrants, carried out with a trollish flair.

You’ll remember DeSantis’ infamous stunt during the Biden administration, when, following Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s lead, he duped, transported and dumped a plane full of migrants in Martha’s Vineyard. In the months following the incident it was revealed that the DeSantis administration lied to those it put on the plane, promising jobs and shelter only to dump them in a community that was not prepared to assist them.

It’s becoming a well worn tactic for DeSantis — upending the lives of migrants in a headline-grabbing way to own the libs/score some media coverage to boost his political significance. At the time of the Martha’s Vineyard incident, DeSantis was toying with the idea of a Trump primary challenge. Much of his second term work as governor of Florida was seen as an attempt to establish himself as a MAGA prodigy by trafficking in Trump-adjacent authoritarian extremes, like a new police force to ferret out people who may have illegally voted in the 2020 election — an effort to play into Trump’s various election-related conspiracy theories.

What Trump and DeSantis are doing in Florida this week is similar. By now you’ve likely seen the new name for the facility that the pair are meeting up to cut the ribbon for on Tuesday. “Alligator Alcatraz” is opening at the Dade-Collier Training and Transition Airport in the Florida Everglades. It will have up to 5,000 beds to hold immigrant detainees and process them for deportation. The facility will cost about $450 million a year in operational costs, according to the Associated Press. The state of Florida will pay to run the facility and the federal government will reimburse Florida with FEMA funds that are typically used to house people displaced by natural disasters. (You’ll recall, the Biden administration was ripped to shreds by Trump and his allies for using those funds to house migrants in hotels while they went through the immigration process.)

$450 million a year? Yes, a lot of people are getting rich by attacking immigrants. And once you start detaining them, you are under no obligation to suddenly discover humanity. That's how you end up with people dying in custody. Aaron Parnas (MEDIAITE) reports:

A 75-year-old Cuban man who first arrived in the United States in 1966 has died after spending three weeks in immigration detention in Miami, making him the fifth person to die in U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) custody in Florida this year.

Isidro Perez, who was detained by ICE on June 5 during an unspecified law enforcement operation in Key Largo, passed away Thursday night at Florida Kendall Hospital. His death underscores a troubling trend: Half of all deaths in ICE custody nationwide in 2024 have occurred in Florida.

According to an ICE press release, Perez was arrested for immigration violations due to his ineligibility to remain in the country—citing two controlled substance convictions from the early 1980s. No other arrests were mentioned.

Again, it's big business and about to get even bigger if Chump's budget bill passes. Big business and it's one that's not really monitored which is why you have deaths and abuse taking place. Greg Sargent (THE NEW REPUBLIC) adds of Isidro Perez:

According to the notification, he was in detention at the Krome detention center in Miami, which is already coming under scrutiny, after two deaths there this year. Krome is where migrants recently lined up to spell out “S.O.S.” in the yard, highlighting growing concerns about detention conditions.

Perez reported chest pains, leading to the summoning of paramedics, who attempted to resuscitate him, after which he died at a Florida hospital, the notification says. While there’s no reason to assume as of now that Perez’s death was directly due to mishandling by ICE, its notification says he’d been diagnosed upon getting booked into Krome and then transferred temporarily to that hospital during his detention, so ICE knew he faced serious health risks.

Immigration law experts tell me they think that given his 1966 arrival in the United States, Perez was likely paroled into the U.S. as part of the parole programs that the U.S. implemented for Cubans fleeing Castro’s reign.

Per NPR's count, Isidro is the tenth person to die in ICE custody in calendar year 2025. Marina Dunbar (GUARDIAN) explains:

Under the past three administrations, the worst year saw 12 deaths in Ice custody. If the current pace continues, the total for 2025 could double those numbers.

Critics say the system is collapsing under the pressure of Ice’s target of detaining about 3,000 people each day. As of mid-June, more than 56,000 migrants were being held – that is 140% of the agency’s stated capacity.

“These are the worst conditions I have seen in my 20-year career,” Paul Chavez, litigation and advocacy director at Americans for Immigrant Justice, told the New York Times. “Conditions were never great, but this is horrendous.”

Among the recent fatalities are 49-year-old Johnny Noviello, a Canadian who was found unresponsive on 23 June at a detention facility in Miami. Another is Jesus Molina-Veya, 45, who died on 7 June while in Ice custody in Atlanta.

Molina-Veya, from Mexico, was found unconscious with a ligature around his neck, according to officials. His death remains under investigation.

And the kidnappings and round ups continue. Jason Weisberger (BOING-BOING) notes:

A family is desperately seeking help in freeing their father, a twenty-year California resident, before he disappears altogether into CBP's for-profit detention and deportation system.

Picking up supplies to fix a fence for a customer, a local handyman was chased down and abducted by ICE. Carlos Mejia Osorio's family is concerned that he will be lost in the US's terrible detention systems, and they will be unable to help him.

Public opinion has turned and continue to turn. If, for example, you're a member of Congress appearing in a public forum, you better expect this issue to be raised. Steve Ahlquist reports US House Rep Seth Magaziner spoke with a League of Women Voters chapter and the transcript includes the following:

Representative Magaziner: Like many of you, I feel a profound sense of anger and rage at many things the administration is doing, but particularly in the immigration space, I sit on the Homeland Security Committee in the House of Representatives. I’m on two committees, Homeland Security and Natural Resources. On the Homeland Security Committee, we are very much in the trenches fighting against the deportation of innocent people, the tearing apart of families, and the rolling back of the fabric of who we are as a country.

We are a country of immigrants. Unless there’s somebody here in this room who’s a hundred percent native, every one of us is descended from immigrants, and our state, Rhode Island, was founded by a refugee as a place of refuge for other refugees. This is our identity as a country and a state, and always has been. The cruelty that we’re seeing from the administration is being driven, certainly, by Trump, but particularly by Stephen Miller, Tom Homan, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who I had the pleasure of arguing with strenuously when she was in front of our committee a few weeks ago.

What they are doing is different from what they have said their goal is. What they have said their goal is, in whatever over the top language they use, is to get rid of criminals, gang members, rapists, et cetera. That, for the most part, is not what they have been doing, according to their data. Since the administration started six months ago, they have detained and or deported just under 300,000 people. Of those, more than 70%, more than 200,000, had no criminal record. These are mothers, children, and people just trying to work, make a living, provide for their families, and contribute to our economy.

It’s been widely reported that a month or two ago, Stephen Miller called all of the regional heads of ICE to come to Washington in person and yelled at them for not deporting enough people and not meeting this artificial quota of 3000 people a day. One of the regional directors said, “But we’ve seen you all say on TV that you want us to focus on criminals and people with removal orders.” And Stephen Miller has reportedly said, “No, forget about that. Go to Home Depot, go to 711, round up whoever you can.” So the administration’s goal is not to do what they say they will.

Speaking for myself, if all they were doing was focusing on people with criminal records or removal orders, we could quibble over whether some of those people should be removed. If that’s all they were going to do, I think most Americans would be okay with that. But that’s not what they’ve been doing. Their goal is to remove immigrants from this country, period, whether they have committed any crimes or not, whether they’re here legally or not, because, as you all are aware, there have been many, many people who have been detained who are here lawfully and committed no crimes: [such as] students expressing political opinions or writing op-eds.

A gentleman from New Hampshire was being held at the Wyatt in Central Falls for a few months. He was a legal green card holder. His only criminal record was a simple possession of marijuana from about 12 years ago, but otherwise, he had a clean record and was a legal green card holder, here legally. What they are doing is so expansive, unnecessary, cruel, and self-defeating.

The vast majority of undocumented people here have no criminal record and are actively contributing and working. It is estimated that 20% of the construction industry, 30% of the hospitality industry—food, beverage, and hotel workers—and 40% of agricultural workers are undocumented. They are central to our supply chain and our ability to keep costs down for American consumers.

What do we do about it? There are three things to consider: litigation, legislation, and agitation. Let’s start with litigation. There are over 300 lawsuits that have been filed against actions that the Trump Administration has taken: funding freezes to states and agencies, potentially illegal actions on immigration, birthright citizenship, etc. If you look at those 300 or so lawsuits, the administration has been losing more than they have been winning, and for the most part, the administration has been following court orders. Earlier in the year, there was a big fear that Trump would just ignore the courts.

“I’m going to do whatever I want. I control the military, I control ICE, I’m going to do whatever I want,” but, for the most part, that has not happened yet. Instead, they will do something illegal, like round up three airplanes of people and send them to a prison in El Salvador with no due process, and no hearing. A court will say, “You should not have done that,” then the administration won’t do it again until they appeal to a higher court to tell them they can. I compare it to Jurassic Park, when the velociraptors kept trying different parts of the fence to see where they could bust through.

That’s the way the administration is handling these deportations: They keep testing the fence and doing things they know are probably going to be found illegal by the courts, but maybe there’s one court that will say, “Okay, you can do that,” and then they find an opening. That’s he way the administration has been handling it. They’re hoping that ultimately, the Supreme Court will be very permissive with them, but in the meantime, they’ve mostly been doing what the courts have told them to do, so we’ve got to keep supporting these lawsuits. Several good organizations are involved: Democracy Forward as One, the ACLU, and others. The litigation front has been very active and, for the most part, has been our most effective arena so far. It’s not perfect, and I’m not saying we’re winning everything, but there’s some effectiveness there.

In Chicago today, officials will be questioned. WLS reports:

A council committee meeting will happen on Tuesday over ICE detainments in the South Loop.

City leaders said they are concerned that Chicago's Welcoming Ordinance may have been violated during an ICE operation in the South Loop.

On June 4, several were detained outside the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program Office, known as ISAP.

ABC7 blurred out their faces, because it is unknown if they are facing any charges.

Several people reported getting texts to check-in for their immigration cases and were later detained.

On Tuesday, the committee on Immigrant and Refugee Rights will vote on a measure for Chicago Police, the Office of Emergency Management Chicago, and the mayor's office to provide all data and communication related to that day.

If you pay attention, you may notice some changes in your surroundings. When we were last in DC, a server was very helpful when we were having lunch. But that's not what stood out. What stood out was a man two tables away watching the server and coming over to ask about her accent. Nazis need informers after all. And look closely around you and you may start noticing little rats who would feel like their pitiful life finally mattered if they knew that they'd destroyed some immigrant's life. Ben Conarck and John-John Williams IV (BALTIMORE BULLETIN) report:

The Baltimore City Sheriff’s Office confirmed that it is investigating a Maryland corrections department employee after ICE agents made a rare and apparently invited visit to the Clarence M. Mitchell, Jr. Courthouse last week and detained someone.

On June 24, ICE agents appeared at the courthouse indicating that they had an appointment with the employee, causing sheriff’s deputies to escort the agents to the fourth floor, where the Maryland Department of Public Safety and Correctional Services runs pretrial services, the sheriff’s office said.

The deputies then watched the agents detain an individual in what they later confirmed was a federal immigration action taken by ICE officers, the first of its kind to take place in the courthouse since President Donald Trump took over the federal government, according to Nicholas Blendy, assistant sheriff and spokesperson for the department.

Blendy said that “it appears that a single pretrial employee contacted ICE to cause a federal immigration enforcement action to occur on Monday outside the scope of their standard duties.” He said the investigation started as an inquiry into a breach of protocols by the corrections department employee. But, he said, it has become a criminal probe into the apparent misuse of information for actions outside official duties.

Isaiah's THE WORLD TODAY JUST NUTS "Your Anti-Social Neighborhood ICE Agent."

Isaiah's latest THE WORLD TODAY JUST NUTS "Your Anti-Social Neighborhood ICE Agent." The agent explains, "I wear a mask because I'm proud of the job I do as an ICE agent and, of course, to avoid lawsuits for beating up women and children." Isaiah archives his comics at THE WORLD TODAY JUST NUTS.

Sean Ogden (WHO WHAT WHY) reports:

This continuing misconduct reflects the actions of unqualified or untrained personnel and exposes serious failures in operational training, oversight, and accountability within the agencies involved.

These private contractors also all lack qualified immunity, leaving them open to prosecution — which many believe is the actual reason for the masks. Victims can sue for civil rights violations, false arrest, personal injury, and wrongful death.

Chump has created a gestapo police force for the US. That will allow him to go down in history and be remembered, yes, but not in a good way. Are these Blackwater mercenaries? Who has he unleashed upon the streets? Congress needs to be asking that question because the moment they showed up, they were wearing masks suggesting they had something to hide.

Adam Daly (AMNY) reports:

A bill to ban federal immigration agents from wearing masks while making arrests is set to be introduced in the House of Representatives by two New York Democrats, amNewYork has learned.

Reps. Dan Goldman (NY-10) and Adriano Espaillat (NY-13) plan to formally introduce the “No Secret Police Act” in the House on Thursday morning. The bill would prohibit Immigration and Customs Enforcement and other Department of Homeland Security officers from concealing their faces during civil immigration enforcement and would require them to clearly display official identification and insignia.

The legislation comes amid a string of ICE detentions at immigration courts in New York and across the country, where masked, plainclothes agents have taken individuals attending immigration appointments into custody.

Nicholas Ballasy (JUST THE NEWS) adds:

New York Rep. Nydia Velazquez held a press conference outside an immigration court to advocate for passage of her bill to ban Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents from wearing masks while making arrests.

Velazquez gathered with other Democrats and activists at the Federal Plaza Immigration Court to push for passage of the "No Masks For ICE" Act.

And that's how it should be. There is not supposed to be a secret police in the US.

Tim Reid, Pilar Olivares, Sebastian Rocandio and Leah Douglas (INDEPENDENT) report:

Recent raids carried out by agents from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in California's agricultural heartland are causing a widespread exodus of workers, threatening the harvest of billions of dollars worth of produce.

Farmers say the raids earlier this month, as part of President Donald Trump's migration crackdown, have frightened off workers and left fields in Ventura County and beyond critically understaffed.

Ventura County produces billions of dollars worth of fruit and vegetables each year, much of it hand-picked by immigrants in the U.S. illegally. Lisa Tate, a sixth-generation farmer in the area, has observed the immediate and chilling effect of the ICE operations.

"In the fields, I would say 70 percent of the workers are gone," she said.

"If 70 percent of your workforce doesn't show up, 70 percent of your crop doesn't get picked and can go bad in one day. Most Americans don't want to do this work. Most farmers here are barely breaking even. I fear this has created a tipping point where many will go bust."

Billal Rahman and Dan Gooding (NEWSWEEK) add:

Immigration enforcement operations on farms have left crops rotting and farm operations disrupted in major agricultural states including California, Texas, and Pennsylvania.

Farm owners and industry representatives report that up to 70 percent of workers stopped reporting to work following Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) actions, resulting in significant crop losses and financial strain.

"We do not have enough workforce in the United States to do manual work, to do those jobs that other people are not qualified to do and do not want to do it," Alexandra Sossa, CEO of Farmworker and Landscaper Advocacy Project, told Newsweek. "For example, we are running into a problem where we do not have enough farm workers to grow the food we eat every day.

"Now we do not have enough workers to go to the meatpacking processing industries and factories to produce, to pack the food that we are eating."

This qualifies as an 'accomplishment' for Donald Chump and is why so many have turned against him. As noted last night on THE NEWSHOUR (PBS):

As President Donald Trump seeks to keep his campaign promise of mass deportations, a majority of Americans say actions by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement have “gone too far,” according to a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll.

More than half of U.S. adults — 54% — described ICE’s actions in enforcing the country’s immigration laws as having “gone too far.” Another 18% percent said the agency has not gone far enough, while 26% said they’d describe ICE’s actions as “about right.”

A majority of Democrats (83%) and independents (59%) said ICE has taken its actions too far. Republicans were more likely to say that the agency’s actions were appropriate, with nearly half (49%) agreeing, while another 31% said ICE “has not gone far enough.”

Those who can learn from history are already objecting to Chump's attacks on immigrants. Sharon Mizota is a fourth generation Japanese-American. At HYPERALLERGIC, she notes:

Many in the Japanese-American community share this intimate understanding of the lasting loss and pain such violations bring. Back in February, the Japanese American National Museum made a powerful statement declaring, “We stand with all immigrant families and communities at risk and will continue to fight for the rights of all people to be recognized as full members of society.” While many in the museum world remained silent or quietly acquiesced as due process, birthright citizenship, and DEI programs were threatened or summarily dismantled, JANM saw what was at stake and stayed true, not only to their mission to steward culture and history but to defend human and civil rights. (In full disclosure, I collaborate with the museum on a fellowship program.)

Only in Chump Land, Hannah Feuer (THE FORWARD) reports:

Nearly 60 years after the United States outlawed racial and religious discrimination in housing, one group in Arkansas is openly reviving it.

“Return to the Land,” a white supremacist group co-founded by Eric Orwoll and Peter Csere in 2023, owns 160 acres in northeast Arkansas, according to the group’s website. Jews and non-whites are explicitly banned. Prospective residents must verify their “ancestral heritage” in a written application and interview before becoming paying members and residing in the off-grid settlement, according to the group’s Substack.

The organization hopes to replicate its whites-only settlements across the country, with the stated aim of “trying to put land back under the control of Europeans.” Experts warn the group’s practices likely run afoul of anti-discrimination laws and express doubt about its long-term viability.

Still, the group’s financial and legal infrastructure makes it one of the most established white supremacist residential communities in the United States today, according to Morgan Moon, an investigative researcher with the Anti-Defamation League’s Center for Extremism.

Chump's self-imposed deadline of July 9th approaches. Deepti Sri (STOCKWITS) notes, "Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg that the U.S. could complete “top 10” deals with major economies by the deadline." 90 days and 90 treaties. Only now maybe only a handful of treaties as Chump fails yet again. Gabriela Leon (EXPLICAME) observes:

As the Trump administration champions tariffs as a path to economic revival, many economists are sounding alarms over their potential to disrupt investment, raise consumer prices, and deliver fewer manufacturing jobs than promised.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly touted tariffs as a cornerstone of his economic strategy. “Tariffs will bring our companies back home,” he declared at a rally, describing the policy as a way to supercharge domestic industry and cut dependence on foreign economies. However, leading economic analysts suggest the results may be far more mixed—and potentially harmful in the short term.

According to a wide range of experts, the administration’s use of tariffs as a negotiating tool has introduced uncertainty into the business environment, deterring companies from making long-term investments. “Everybody is kind of in a holding pattern until the uncertainty gets resolved,” said Jeff Bischoff, chief sales officer at Gray, a Kentucky-based construction firm. Recent Census Bureau data reflects this hesitation: manufacturing construction spending has declined slightly in recent months.

The costs of doing business under current trade policies are also rising. Nearly one-third of U.S. manufacturers depend on imported intermediate goods, and the increased cost of these inputs—exacerbated by tariffs—is squeezing margins. The National Association of Manufacturers and the Department of Commerce have both pointed to inflationary pressure and higher materials costs as significant threats to growth.

He's been allowed to destroy our economy and to destroy our economy. The only hope of any protections being put in place is a Democratic sweep in the mid-terms.

Dennis Muhanji (THE FINANCE KEY) adds:

Mark Cuban isn’t sugarcoating it anymore. The billionaire entrepreneur and Shark Tank star is practically shouting from the rooftops: China tariffs are costing you way more than you realize. And he’s right to be alarmed. Here’s the thing that’s got Cuban and economists like Justin Wolfers freaking out—tariffs don’t just replace each other. They stack. They build on top of existing rates.

As of June 2025, we’re looking at an average 51.1% tariff on Chinese imports, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics.We’re talking about rates that can climb as high as 55% when you factor in the 10% baseline tariff, the 20% “fentanyl” tariff, and the 25% Section 301 tariffs, all piling on top of each other.

While there have been fluctuations and temporary reductions (such as the recent 90-day truce lowering some rates to 30%), the current effective average remains above 50% for most Chinese imports. But many Americans only see the new percentages in headlines, missing the cumulative effect.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) reports that the average tariff on Chinese goods now stands at 51.1%. These elevated tariffs are directly increasing the prices of everyday items. For example, recent analyses show that consumer technology products are facing sharp price hikes:

Smartphones: up 31%

Monitors: up 32%

Laptops and tablets: up 34%

Video game consoles: up 69%

Walmart and Target executives have been looking stressed lately. They can either absorb the additional costs—cutting into already narrow profit margins—or raise prices for consumers.

With approximately 60% of Walmart’s merchandise still sourced from China in 2025—spanning electronics, clothing, toys, and household goods—the company is highly exposed to tariff-driven price increases and supply chain disruptions.

Walmart’s Chief Financial Officer, John David Rainey, has publicly stated that these tariffs are “inflationary for customers,” meaning price hikes are now unavoidable for many products.

Got pets? Prepare to see a price increase.

James Liddell (THE INDEPENDENT) reports:

A week after Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariff plan went into effect on “Liberation Day” on April 2, the president abruptly announced a 90-day pause to refocus his trade war on China.

The U-turn offered reprieve to dozens of countries, including Thailand, the largest foreign supplier of pet food to the U.S., which faced a steep 36 percent tariff on its exports to the American market. In 2024, the U.S. imported 392 million kilograms of cat and dog food.

Now, the 90-day pause, which caps import taxes at 10 percent for most nations, is set to end.

If no deal is struck between Bangkok and Washington by the July 9 deadline and tariffs return to the 36 percent rate announced in April, pet food prices could rise on American shelves, leaving animal owners to shoulder the cost.

In that scenario, Thai pet food producers have warned they may be forced to suspend shipments to the U.S. market.

“We need to pause shipping to the U.S. unless something changes,” Chatchai Lertviwatkul of S.I.P. Siam Inter Pacific told The New York Times. “Our customers can’t increase the prices that much at retail.”

Meanwhile, Shane Croucher (NEWSWEEK) points out:

The U.S. dollar has had its worst start to a year since 1973, weighed down by President Donald Trump's frenetic trade policy, a worsening outlook for the country's ever-bloating public debt pile, and fears about the independence of the Federal Reserve.

The Financial Times reported that the U.S. Dollar Index was now down by 10 percent over the course of 2025, making it the weakest performance since the end of the Bretton Woods system, which was underpinned by the dollar's convertibility to gold.

Trump has staked much of his political reputation on his handling of the economy, pitching himself as the leader who can slash household bills, put more money in Americans' pockets through lower taxes, and lift commerce into a new golden age.

The dollar news concides with the U.S. Senate gearing up to pass Trump's much-tweaked One, Big, Beautiful Bill, the tax-cutting provisions of which are set to expand the deficit by trillions of dollars over the coming decade—putting pressure on the dollar.

In the midst of all of this bad economic news, the GOP is trying to ram through a bill that will seriously harm most Americans. Bob Cronin (NEWSER) notes, "Majority Leader John Thune said he wants to pass the bill Monday to get it back to the House for its final approval before the July 4 deadline Trump set. But polls show the measure is becoming more unpopular with voters over time, per the Washington Post. And its estimated cost rose on Sunday when the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the bill would balloon the national debt by $3.3 trillion over 10 years. That's on top of significant increases in borrowing costs; even with its spending cuts, the measure is largely deficit-financed."

Senator Elizabeth Warren's office issued the following:

JEC Analysis

Washington, D.C. — U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) released new data from the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) estimating that Republicans’ bill would kick 326,262 people in Massachusetts off of their health insurance — up from 305,611 under the House version of the bill earlier this month.

A recent analysis by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) also found that the proposed Senate bill would increase the number of Americans who will lose their health insurance to 17 million people.

“Senate Republicans had the opportunity to fight back against the House’s disgusting excuse of a bill. Instead, they’re ripping health care away from even more people and raising costs for families to fund giant tax handouts for billionaires and giant corporations,” said Senator Warren. “This ugly bill is a slap in the face for Massachusetts families, and I’m taking all my fight to the Senate floor to stop it.”

A Republican amendment proposes to lower the federal funding that states receive to cover certain Medicaid enrollees, likely immediately ending the program in 9 states with “trigger laws” activated if the federal matching percentage is reduced. If adopted, the amendment would raise the number of people kicked off of health insurance to 20 million.

JEC estimates that if all states end their Medicaid expansion programs due to the Republican amendment, combined with the devastating Medicaid cuts in the bill, 29 million people across the country could lose their health insurance.

Senator Warren has led the fight against these unprecedented cuts to Americans’ health care, pressing nominees to justify the cuts, and sharing stories of constituents set to be impacted by the cuts. The Senate is voting on its version of the budget bill today.

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