Tuesday, May 10, 2022

The ocean is losing its memory

From last night,Isaiah's THE WORLD TODAY JUST NUTS "UTool Of Empire"

 

utool

 

Now let's talk science.  Li Cohen (CBS NEWS) reports:  

 

Earth's oceans are feeling the wrath of human-induced climate change. Glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising and reefs are dying – and now, according to a new study published in Science Advances, the sea is losing its memory altogether. 

Unlike weather, which can change wildly and rapidly day-to-day, Earth's oceans usually only have slight changes throughout the week. This persistence is called "memory" and is related to the thickness of the ocean's top mixed layer. Similar to how a thicker mattress provides better cushioning, a thicker sea surface layer allows for a better memory because of the thermal inertia at play. 

But as global warming increases and the ocean temperature rises, that top layer thins out. And like a thinning mattress, the support, or in this case the year-to-year "memory," weakens.  

"It's almost as if the ocean is developing amnesia," study lead author Hui Shi said. 

This memory is what helps scientists predict ocean conditions, and its decline will make it harder to keep up with changes.

 

 

The University of Hawaii issued this press release:

 

The world’s ocean is steadily losing its year-to-year memory due to global warming, according to a study published in Science Advances co-authored by a University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa atmospheric scientist. The research team discovered this by assessing future projections from the latest generation of Earth System Models.

Compared with the fast weather fluctuations of the atmosphere, the slowly varying ocean exhibits strong persistence, or “memory,” meaning the ocean temperature tomorrow is likely to look a lot like it does today, with only slight changes. As a result, ocean memory is often used for predicting ocean conditions. 

Across the climate models, ocean memory decline was found as a collective response to human-induced warming. As greenhouse-gas concentrations continue to rise, such memory decline will become increasingly evident.

“We discovered this phenomenon by examining the similarity in ocean surface temperature from one year to the next as a simple metric for ocean memory,” said Hui Shi, lead author and researcher at the Farallon Institute in Petaluma, California. “It's almost as if the ocean is developing amnesia.” 

Ocean memory is found to be related to the thickness of the uppermost layer of the ocean, known as the mixed layer. Deeper mixed layers have greater heat content, which confers more thermal inertia that translates into memory. However, the mixed layer over most oceans will become shallower in response to continued anthropogenic warming, resulting in a decline in ocean memory. 

New challenges for ocean predictions

Along with ocean memory decline, the thinning mixed layer is also found to increase the random fluctuations of the sea surface temperature. As a result, although the ocean will not become much more variable from one year to the next in the future, the fraction of helpful signals for prediction largely reduces. 

“Reduced ocean memory together with increased random fluctuations suggest intrinsic changes in the system and new challenges in prediction under warming,” said Fei-Fei Jin, an atmospheric sciences professor at the UH Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, and co-author of the research.

Impacts on ocean management and more

Ocean memory loss does not just impact the prediction of physical variables, but could also influence the way we manage sensitive marine ecosystems. 

In fisheries management, the biological parameters used for stock assessment are estimated assuming a stable environment represented by the recent past. Reduced ocean memory might render such estimation inaccurate and calls for new approaches in ecosystem-based fisheries management to include real-time ocean monitoring and other efforts alike. Ocean memory decline also likely exerts impacts on populations of biological resources. Depending on whether the species are adapted to constant or more variable environmental conditions, future changes in their population can be better estimated and predicted by taking ocean memory loss into consideration. 

Besides ocean prediction, forecasting land-based impacts on temperature, precipitation as well as extreme events might also be affected by ocean memory decline due to their dependence on the persistence of sea surface temperature as a predictability source. As ocean memory continues to decline, researchers will likely be challenged to search for alternative predictors for skillful predictions.

 

We just keep destroying our world and then collectively shrug our shoulders as though there's nothing we could do to stop the destruction.

 

The oceans are home to many forms of life.   Kendal Blust (NPR) reports on one group:

 

The vaquita marina, Spanish for "little sea cow," is considered the world's most endangered marine mammal.

The gray porpoise – known for its small size and characteristic black markings around its eyes and mouth – only lives in the northernmost part of Mexico's Gulf of California, where fishing has brought the species to the brink of extinction.

But research now finds that, genetically speaking, there is still hope the vaquita population can recover.

"We're really pushing back on the idea that the species is doomed," says Jacqueline Robinson, an evolutionary geneticist at the University of California, San Francisco and an author of the study, which is published in the journal Science.

While all future vaquita will be descendants of just an estimated 10 remaining porpoises, the study shows that the negative impacts of inbreeding would be minimal. In fact, Robinson and her team found the species would have a good chance of recovering – if it can be better protected from gillnets, walls of netting submerged underwater that can trap and drown the small mammal.

 

 

 

"Iraq snapshot" (THE COMMON ILLS):

Tuesday, May 10, 2022.   Iraq's ongoing political stalemate hits the seven month mark with no end in sight, Us forces shoot up Iraqi homes, and  much more


The Iraq War has not ended.  Yesterday, US forces opened fire on homes in Erbil.  ALSUMARIA TV reports that the US is saying this was an accident and a training exercise.  Let's accept that for the moment, if true, why were US forces -- there, we are told, only for training on basis -- out and about and firing on homes in Erbil?


No, it doesn't make sense.


Amr Salem (IRAQI NEWS) notes:


The governor of Basrma town in Erbil governorate reported Tuesday that US forces mistakenly opened fire at several houses in the town, according to Baghdad Today news.


[. . .]


Other news reports indicated that six missiles fired by the US forces hit houses in a crowded area in Basrma injuring civilians.

Concerned Iraqi security officials started investigations to find out how the accident took place.


ABNA 24 adds, "Released images of the incident show that civilian houses and vehicles were damaged in the area, but more details have not yet been released."


11 homes were shot up.


From 11 to 10, it is now May 10th, know what that means?  We'll jog memories.  October 10th, Iraqis turned out to vote.  All this time later, they've still failed to elect a president and have failed to name a prime minister-designate which means there's no real Cabinet.  Their term expired back in October.


And don't try to b.s. your way through that.  In 2010, the western press went along with then-prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's claim that Iraq had no vice president because there terms were expired and no new government had been elected.  So let's stop pretending that there's a legal cabinet from the holdover government.  


It's now seven months after the election.


In 2010, Iraq set the record for the longest time between an election and finally forming a government -- eight months.  Now unlike the floundering Moqtada al-Sadr today, in 2010, the problem was Nouri refused to step down.  He lost and he wouldn't step down.  Originally, the US government said they would stand with the winner.  Then Samantha Power bent Barack Obama's ear and they started backing the loser -- Nouri.  They would go on to negotiate The Erbil Agreement which would toss the votes of the Iraqi people aside and give Nouri a second term -- which would result in the rise of ISIS in Iraq. 


In October 2010, JJ Sutherland (NPR) wrote:


It may not be a record to be proud of, but, hey, at least it's something. Iraq has now not had a government after a parliamentary election longer than anybody, ever. The Washington Post is reporting that the Netherlands held that honor until today, back in 1977 they went without an elected government for 207 days, today marks Iraq's 208th.

Leila Fadhil of the Post quotes one of the great Iraq watchers and a Dutchman himself, Joost Hiltermann.

"There is no difference with the Iraqi case, except that the Netherlands had strong, functioning institutions and a caretaker government that continued to govern," said Joost Hiltermann, a Dutch national and an expert on Iraq at the International Crisis Group. "Iraq has very weak institutions and a caretaker government that can do very little. This makes for a potentially highly unstable and precarious situation."

The election was close, incumbent Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Shi'ite party won 89 seats in parliament, while former Prime Minister and secular Shi'ite Iyad Allawi's party won 91 seats. And, it being Iraq, there are other parties and players that also have been angling for power. Negotiations, now in their 208th day, have produced no result.


That was October 1, 2010.  Parliament would only move forward on November 11, 2010.  207 days on October 1st.  30 more days in October takes that to 237.  Add the 10 days of Noember (possibly 11 since it's considered ended on the 11th) and you have 247 days.  


Now in 2010, Nouri refused to accept losing, refused to step down, refused to move out of the prime minister's home, etc.


There has been no such refusal this go round.  But seven months later, it's seven months now, and it's still not been resolved, the political stalemate has continued because of ineptitude.


Now the Constitution -- which is never followed -- has the way for a prime minister-designate to move over to the prime minister by forming a Cabinet.  Now that's not followed.  Even when, like Hayder al-Abadi, they swear that it's going to be followed this time.


The reason for that being in the Constitution?  If you can't form a Cabinet, you can't govern.


To form a Cabinet, you have to make deals, do horse trading, prove you can work with the majority.


No one's done that, they haven't followed that aspect of the Constitution once.  So it's no surprise that the various government's have failed the people and refused to address their needs.


But grasp that the failure right now is happening not with the Cabinet forming.  It's no where near that level yet.  You have various groups and none can horse trade, none can work with others well enough to form a government.


This is a new low and it should alarm the international community.  


But there's no honesty in the international community.


When they do bother to realize that this not normal and should not be acceptable, they rush to shame the Kurds.


How many times has it been explained that the Kurds are a minority population in Iraq?


Now of Kurds who chose to vote, the majority are represented by the KDP while the PUK political party represents the next largest group of voters.  (The KDP got 31 seats while the PUK got 18 seats.)


This is not the fault of the Kurds.  Quit blaming them.  The KDP is siding with Moqtada al-Sadr while the PUK has sides with the Coordination Framework (which is run by many -- including Nouri al-Maliki).  


This is beyond stupid to blame the Kurds. Now, yes, usually the western world is able to blackmail or guilt the Kurds into this or that.  It's why there is no Kurdish homeland to this day.  They are the largest ethnic population on the planet without a nation-state.  


Shi'ites are the dominant group in Iraq.  And Moqtada's grouping -- no this political party -- got 73 seats.  Other Shi'ite groups did well also.  Nouri's State of Law got 33 seats.  


The PUK and the KDP are split, they're not united.  One of the reasons is that the PUK has had the presidency since the US invaded Iraq.  Back then the PUK and the KDP were close to the same level of popularity.  However, since the Talabani family defrauded Iraq (pretending Jalal was healthy and recovering when he couldn't speak and he couldn't move and should have been replaced as president), their polarity has soured.  Gorran, with the help of CIA-seed money, managed to overtake the PUK.  And then they decided to get in bed with the PUK and had a disaster at the polls in October.  But the KDP feels that they should have the presidency -- by custom, Iraq awards that office (largely ceremonial) to a Kurd, the Speaker of Parliament goes to a Sunni and the prime minister is a Shi'ite.  


Moqtada, representing one Shi'ite faction, and Nouri representing aonther?  Those are where the big votes are.  The PUK, for example, could be dropped immediately without any real loss if the Coordination Framework was able to appeal to others -- Shi'ites, Sunnis, minority candidates, etc.  


This has been an abject failure.  


It also gets to how wrong Moqtada and others have been claiming the problem was the system of government and that's why he was going to come up with a different formation -- he was going to do a national majority government.  That was the answer.  Well it hasn't been and the problems appear to be even worse with what Moqtada's attempted.  Yet, Moqtada's MP Hassan al-Adhari tells ALSUMARIA that they are still pursuing that majority government.


April 1st, he bowed out.  He announced a forty day hold on his actions.  He wanted to see if his opponents could form a government (or he wanted to prove that they couldn't -- depending upon how you look at it).  


This has all been one long failure and the problem isn't the Kurds no matter what the western press screeches and hisses.  These are the same whores, remember, who told you that Moqtada was a "kingmaker."  He had no experience being that, but whores make their money from inflating tiny things -- i.e. "No, baby, it's huge.  I've never seen one that big before."


And that's what they did with Moqtada.  They lied then, they lie now.  



Meanwhile, ALMADA's Hussein al-Amel reports that hundreds of graduates shut down Dhi Qar Oil Company as well as the Directorate of Education wih a sit-in as they demanded job opportunities.  In the meantime, oil workers have been sent home.  In April, the Iraqi Army destroyed the base the activists were operating from -- including their tents -- when they stopped their sit-ins to observe Ramadan.


In yesterday's snapshot, we noted the rise of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) in Iraq  This morning, RUDAW reports:

 


The Kurdistan Region on Tuesday recorded the first case of Congo fever amid an outbreak in Iraq’s southern provinces.

Erbil General Directorate of Health reported the first Congo hemorrhagic fever in the city. The infected person is 17-year-old and has been hospitalized.

The directorate did not disclose further details.

The Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, also known as Congo fever, is tick-borne and causes severe hemorrhaging, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). It has been endemic to Iraq since 1979 and reappeared again last year.



We'll wind down with this from The Feminist Majoarity:


I’m circling with a brief update here, Common Ills, after last week’s devastating news about the leaked draft opinion out of SCOTUS.

Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has confirmed — the Senate will be voting THIS WEEK on the Women’s Health Protection Act:

Screenshot of a tweet from Chuck Schumer that reads: I’m standing with elected officials and women’s rights advocates in NY because the Supreme Court’s reported decision is an abomination. The Senate will vote this week on the Women’s Health Protection Act to protect abortion rights. We will see where every single senator stands.

Please continue to contact your Senators ASAP to urge them to vote YES for the Women’s Health Protection Act this week.

See Ellie’s note below.
-KS


From: Ellie Smeal <reply@feministmajority.org>
Sent: Tuesday, May 3, 2022 7:01 PM
To: You
Subject: fed up and fired up



Isaiah's THE WORLD TODAY JUST NUTS "UTool Of Empire" went up last night.  The following sites updated: