I haven't seen her Margaret Thatcher film, but I'm sure she's wonderful. She generally is. And she's won before.
But I wouldn't give it to her this year.
I would go with Viola Davis for The Help. And, barring her, I'd go with Michelle Williams for her portrayal of Marilyn Monroe.
I think Davis gave the best performance. But I could see Williams getting it just because she is younger. Sometimes they make too much of a fuss over women who are not going to be doing a lot of lead roles again. Joanne Woodward, Marlee Matlin, etc. (I think Joanne Woodward was the worst choice of all time for an Oscar. And I think her post-Oscar win career proves how undeserving she really was. At least Marlee deserved it for her acting in Children Of A Lesser God.)
Sometimes you need to give the award to Audrey Hepburn. She won at the start of her American film career. Michelle Williams has done amazing work (including as Marilyn) so I would be okay with her getting it. She's my second choice. But I would be okay with it.
My first choice is Viola Davis. And I think, just for the role alone, she tops everybody else.
And the reason I'd object to Meryl or anyone similar is that they have Oscars.
So for me, you either give it for the best performance (Davis) or to honor a very talented youngster and to crown what will hopefully be an exciting career (Williams).
"Iraq snapshot" (The Common Ills):